Primary sources, research, platform history and proprietary analysis receive distinct evidence grades.
SWARMALPHA KNOWLEDGE ATLAS / EN
Prediction Markets.
Explained systematically.
A source-based knowledge system for prediction markets, Event Contracts and Event Futures—historically reconstructed, academically contextualised and differentiated by regulatory treatment.
01 / COVERAGE MAP
A structure that maps questions
to more than pages.
Search terms lead into a body of subject-matter context: from definition and historical origin to a specific supervisory position.
01Core
Foundations
Understanding prediction marketsHow they work, prices as implied probabilities, market models, liquidity and resolution.
Open layer02Deep Dive
Origins & history
History of prediction marketsFrom historical election markets and academic experiments to digital event exchanges.
Open layer03Comparison + Tool
Product comparison
Option, Event Contract, market or bet?Compare product features, regulation, tradability and access, then assess the relevant characteristics in the Classification Navigator.
Open layer04Research
Research
Information AggregationResearch on forecast accuracy, incentive systems, calibration, manipulation and limitations.
Open layer05Living Object
Regulation
EU Event Contract regulationFinancial instrument, derivative, binary option, trading venue or national gambling law.
Open layer06Tracker
Gambling Lens
Prediction markets and gamblingRegulatory positions, product boundaries, market practices and enforcement in chronological context.
Open layer07Market Structure
Market mechanics
P2P, market maker or AMM?Forms of access, counterparties, price formation, matching, the operator's role and trading surveillance.
Open layer08Governance Lab
Market integrity
ECGA · Governance by DesignInteractively assess event eligibility, determination, insider risks, safeguards against manipulation, surveillance and auditability.
Open layer09Framework
Business models
Prediction Market Business ModelsResearch, data products, virtual markets, B2B infrastructure and regulated extensions.
Open layerIN A NUTSHELL
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market is a rules-based system that aggregates expectations about the outcome of clearly defined future events. Depending on its design, it may produce tradable contracts, virtual positions or non-monetary community signals. The observable price or score can be interpreted as a condensed expectation—not as certainty.
EVENT clearly defined future factOPINION standardised expectation positionSIGNAL aggregate result of multiple assessmentsRESOLUTION rules-based determination of the outcome
02 / AUTHORITY STANDARD
Authority begins
with precise distinctions.
Publication date, event date, effective date and later knowledge are not conflated.
Model, community, market price and realised outcome remain distinct layers of evidence.
New evidence supplements or revises the record transparently without making earlier positions disappear.
START READING
Where prediction markets
really begin.
The story does not begin with crypto, Kalshi or the 2024 US election cycle. The Origins Layer reconstructs the development from early election markets and the economic theory of dispersed information to academic real-money experiments.