PREDICTION MARKET INTELLIGENCE
swarmalpha makes collective expectations visible, intelligible and usable—as a knowledge system, a virtual market laboratory and infrastructure designed for regulatory compatibility.
Will the EU discuss a dedicated framework for Event Contracts by the end of 2027?
The Minerva association identifies the source-based Knowledge Layer: precise in retrospect and open-minded about what lies ahead. Alpha denotes an information advantage—not a promise of returns.
swarmalpha also documents the conditions under which Event Contracts might be structured as regulated market products and made accessible through suitable infrastructure.
00 / PORTAL ATLAS
swarmalpha does not organise prediction-market information by recency alone. Each item is placed within a system of market objects, history, evidence, product type and regulatory context.
Methodology and source standardConcrete events as traceable objects of research, from question design to resolution.
Open 02LEARN · TAXONOMYFoundations, product types, market models, tradability and clear conceptual boundaries.
Open 03MEMORY · WAYBACKThe development of prediction markets as a reconstructable history of ideas, companies and decisions.
Open 04SCIENCE · EVIDENCEEvidence, simulations and boundary conditions for information aggregation, liquidity and arbitrage.
Open 05EU · FRAMEWORKRegulatory perspectives, event specifications, decision criteria and documented uncertainty.
Open 06COMPARE · CLASSIFYSimilarities and differences across prediction markets, derivatives, binary options and gambling.
Open 07VISIER · MONITORRegulatory positions, market practices and developments, with a particular focus on Germany.
Open 08PROVIDERS · PUBLIC MARKETSProviders, listed companies, ETFs and corporate disclosures as an observable industry layer.
OpenKnowledge base and market monitoring. The portal brings historical reconstruction, current developments, virtual market objects and regulatory assessment together in one research environment.
01 / VIRTUAL MARKETS
No betting, no real money, no investment recommendation. Virtual markets document how collective expectations form and change before an event.
02 / HOW OPINIONS BECOME SIGNALS
The interactive sequence separates four stages: individual assessment, aggregation, reaction to new information and ex-post evaluation. It shows an expectation signal—not yet a tradable price.
BUSINESS MODEL LAYER
Monetisation need not begin with real-money trading. Data, research and virtual market infrastructure can be products in their own right. Trading-related revenue remains a conditional extension.
Dossiers, data access, APIs, institutional analysis and curated market monitoring.
Subscription · Licensing · API02A / VIRTUAL OPINION EXCHANGE
An Event Future does not make an opinion ‘true’. In a peer-to-peer model, its price forms where a bid and an offer match. The simulation follows this process across the life of an unambiguously specified YES/NO event.
Virtual units · no real money · no investment recommendationEVENT LIFECYCLE
More independent orders deepen the order book. The most recently matched price becomes an observable market signal.
Participants trade with one another. The operator provides the technology, rules, matching, market surveillance and an auditable resolution process.
64/100 can be interpreted as a market-implied probability of 64%, but only under assumptions about liquidity, costs and risk preferences.
Under the objectively specified source, the contract settles at 100 for YES or 0 for NO. Open or disputed cases require their own rules.
02B / US ELECTION 2024 · MARKET UNDER SHOCK
This historical case study combines documented reference values with a deliberately simplified price path. It shows not only who was ahead, but how differently markets reacted to the debate, the assassination attempt, the change of candidate and Election Day.
Reading rule: A price of 60 cents corresponds approximately to a market-implied probability of 60%. Candidate contracts from different markets are not necessarily exact counterpositions. Platform design, liquidity, fees, market structure and large positions affect the observed price.
03 / SWARMALPHA MEMORY
News does not disappear into an archive. It is connected with markets, platforms, research and regulatory decisions to form traceable lines of development.
04 / GAMBLING INDUSTRY · VISIER & TRACKER
Editorial standard: Legislation, regulatory positions, observed market practice and swarmalpha analysis are labelled separately. Open questions remain visible as open questions.
Open the full tracker05 / KNOWLEDGE LAYER
Knowledge does not sit beside the market. It is part of the market object—source-based, versioned and explained where it is needed. Open the Knowledge Atlas →
Mechanics, prices, probability, liquidity and information aggregation.
Jurisdictions, regulatory positions and open questions kept precisely distinct.
Studies and books with their methodology, findings and limitations.
Developments and market models as reconstructable timelines.
06 / POLITICAL FORECAST OBJECT
The 13 Keys to the White House become the first political master object: the original model, community signal, prediction market and realised outcome remain distinct—and become jointly readable after the event.
Open the 13 Keys LabPROVENANCE / SINCE 2004
swarmalpha draws on more than 25 years of experience in financial markets, platform development and product design. Its work on prediction markets dates back to an early regulated-market concept developed in 2004, including implementation as a peer-to-peer Event Future Exchange in a joint venture with Ireland’s TradeSports/Intrade.
More on our provenance07 / EVIDENCE & LINKING STANDARD
Primary sources, academic work, industry sources, media reports and proprietary analysis are visibly distinguished.
Event date, publication date, jurisdiction, product and participating entities remain separately linkable.
Facts, claims, interpretations, limitations and open questions each receive their own status.
ONE SYSTEM · THREE POSSIBLE FUTURES