Betting on public affairs and prediction markets: FAQ clarifies the German position
The GGL states that paid betting on political and public-affairs events is not eligible for authorisation and addresses risks for participants.
GAMBLING INDUSTRY · VISIER & TRACKER
Regulatory positions, legislation, market practices and enforcement are reconstructed as a traceable line of development—from the latest signal back to the early regulatory anchors.
Sorted by event or effective date. A different publication date is shown separately on the entry.
The GGL states that paid betting on political and public-affairs events is not eligible for authorisation and addresses risks for participants.
Whether an Event Contract is a financial instrument depends on the event question. If it qualifies as a financial instrument and has a binary outcome, national product-intervention measures may apply.
Gambling authorities from several European countries jointly address the regulatory challenges posed by new prediction-market offerings.
The CFTC proposes a framework for assessing contracts involving gaming, war, terrorism, assassination or unlawful activity.
European authorities discuss prediction markets, market integrity and illegal gambling together.
The CFTC emphasises the duties of registered venues concerning listing, surveillance, market integrity and objective resolution of Event Contracts.
The CFTC withdraws the earlier proposal and a staff advisory on sports Event Contracts.
The GGL warns against paid predictions on elections, court decisions, natural disasters and other non-sporting events.
The proposal at the time sought to treat political contests and other categories as gaming contracts contrary to the public interest.
BaFin maintains the prohibition on marketing, distributing and selling covered binary options to retail clients.
The authority alleged that the Irish operators offered prohibited off-exchange event options to US customers.
The CFTC invites comments on the regulation of event, prediction and information markets.
Project provenance: concept and implementation path for a peer-to-peer Event Future Exchange in a joint venture with Ireland’s TradeSports/Intrade.
The platform became an internationally recognised prediction market and was particularly influential during the 2008 and 2012 US election cycles.
The CFTC permits a small, non-profit electronic research market at the University of Iowa subject to limited conditions.
EDITORIAL METHOD / REVERSE RECONSTRUCTION
The event or effective date governs the chronology. The publication date is retained separately.
Primary sources lead. Platform history and project provenance are clearly labelled and not assigned equal evidential weight.
Missing years are not an error. Only a robust source creates a historical entry.
Today’s terminology and legal views are not applied uncritically to earlier market models.
HISTORICAL DEPTH MAP