swarmalpha Portal

GAMBLING INDUSTRY · VISIER & TRACKER

The boundary
is moving.

Regulatory positions, legislation, market practices and enforcement are reconstructed as a traceable line of development—from the latest signal back to the early regulatory anchors.

15 ENTRIES

Sorted by event or effective date. A different publication date is shown separately on the entry.

DE
01
RegulationGGLPRIMARY

Betting on public affairs and prediction markets: FAQ clarifies the German position

The GGL states that paid betting on political and public-affairs events is not eligible for authorisation and addresses risks for participants.

EU
02
RegulationESMAPRIMARY

Event Contracts meet national binary-option measures

Whether an Event Contract is a financial instrument depends on the event question. If it qualifies as a financial instrument and has a binary outcome, national product-intervention measures may apply.

EU
03
RegulationEUROPEAN GAMBLING AUTHORITIESPRIMARY

Joint European statement on prediction markets

Gambling authorities from several European countries jointly address the regulatory challenges posed by new prediction-market offerings.

US
04
RegulationCFTCPRIMARY

New proposal for structured review of sensitive Event Contracts

The CFTC proposes a framework for assessing contracts involving gaming, war, terrorism, assassination or unlawful activity.

EU
05
RegulationGGL / EUROPEPRIMARY

Regulatory dialogue on prediction markets and match manipulation

European authorities discuss prediction markets, market integrity and illegal gambling together.

US
06
RegulationCFTCPRIMARY

Prediction Markets Advisory and new consultation

The CFTC emphasises the duties of registered venues concerning listing, surveillance, market integrity and objective resolution of Event Contracts.

US
07
RegulationCFTCPRIMARY

2024 Event Contract rule proposal withdrawn

The CFTC withdraws the earlier proposal and a staff advisory on sports Event Contracts.

DE
08
RegulationGGLPRIMARY

Warning against illegal betting on public affairs

The GGL warns against paid predictions on elections, court decisions, natural disasters and other non-sporting events.

US
09
RegulationCFTCPRIMARY

Political Event Contracts proposed for classification as gaming

The proposal at the time sought to treat political contests and other categories as gaming contracts contrary to the public interest.

DE
10
RegulationBAFINPRIMARY

National product intervention concerning binary options

BaFin maintains the prohibition on marketing, distributing and selling covered binary options to retail clients.

US
11
EnforcementCFTC / INTRADEPRIMARY

CFTC takes action against Intrade and Trade Exchange Network

The authority alleged that the Irish operators offered prohibited off-exchange event options to US customers.

US
12
RegulationCFTCPRIMARY

First comprehensive consultation on the treatment of Event Contracts

The CFTC invites comments on the regulation of event, prediction and information markets.

HERITAGE
13
Provenance3RMCN / TRADESPORTSPROJECT

Early concept for a regulated prediction market

Project provenance: concept and implementation path for a peer-to-peer Event Future Exchange in a joint venture with Ireland’s TradeSports/Intrade.

INT
14
Market practiceINTRADEPLATFORM

Intrade emerges in Dublin

The platform became an internationally recognised prediction market and was particularly influential during the 2008 and 2012 US election cycles.

US
15
RegulationCFTC / IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETSPRIMARY

No-action position for the Iowa Presidential Stock Market

The CFTC permits a small, non-profit electronic research market at the University of Iowa subject to limited conditions.

EDITORIAL METHOD / REVERSE RECONSTRUCTION

As far back as the evidence supports.
Not as far as a story can be told.

Two date fields

The event or effective date governs the chronology. The publication date is retained separately.

Source grade

Primary sources lead. Platform history and project provenance are clearly labelled and not assigned equal evidential weight.

Gaps remain visible

Missing years are not an error. Only a robust source creates a historical entry.

No retrospective projection

Today’s terminology and legal views are not applied uncritically to earlier market models.

HISTORICAL DEPTH MAP

1992 is the starting point
of the robust regulatory timeline.

ORIGINS Research precursors · reconstruction pending1992–2000 Experimental exemption and research models2001–2013 Platform era · Intrade / TradeSports / enforcement2018–2026 Product intervention · new market phase · European response